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May challenges Trump on impact of Iran sanctions in phone call

14 May, 2018, 04:19 | Author: Samuel Sharp
  • Iran Oil Flare

Our model suggests that roughly 25% of Iranian oil exports will be curtailed over the course of a year, but far less over the next 180 days, which is the window provided by the US Treasury to comply with the sanctions.

This - along with an output cap by Russian Federation and OPEC, rising U.S. demand and an improving economy - has helped send the price of oil to highs not seen since late 2014, though profit-taking saw both main contracts retreat yesterday.

President Trump's announcement that he will withdraw the United States from the Iran nuclear deal sent crude oil prices up slightly.

He added that "unless there are some production increases from the OPEC/Non-OPEC accord to offset the drop in Venezuelan production, and the expected decline of the Iranian output, prices could be in for a significant leg higher". If South Korea is seen as complicit in the abrogation of the Iran deal, formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), it may fear losing credibility with Pyongyang in the negotiations over its nuclear program. Both sides are locked in a proxy war in Yemen. The facility started producing ingots and billet within months of the lifting of punitive measures against the Islamic republic as part of 2015 worldwide nuclear agreement with Iran. US drivers who've noticed higher prices at the pump may be tempted to blame Trump's Iran decision, but it's only one factor at play right now. Brent crude oil closed on the day of that message at $74.06, compared with around $77.30 early Friday in NY.

Iran's previous highest post-sanctions crude exports were 2.44 million b/d in October 2016, the report said. "Now that the United States has violated that and pulled out of it, it's hard to see how we're going to get those Americans out".

Many analysts in Europe said they are dismayed by Trump's decision, which they said has unnecessarily put global security at risk and raised the prospect of a unsafe confrontation with Iran.


"What the full impact on Iranian flows will be is still hard to estimate", said Petromatrix strategist Olivier Jakob.

Since the Iran nuclear deal went into effect, its exports have risen to about 2.5 million bpd, from less than 1 million bpd. "As we have throughout this process, we'll continue to follow the USA government's lead", the company said. The reduction is partially the result of hedging in anticipation of President Trump's withdrawal from the Iran deal. In exchange, Iran required that all worldwide sanctions against them be lifted.

As that view hinges on Opec reviving output and a limited impact on Iran from USA sanctions, prices could go even higher, it said, becoming the first Wall Street bank to suggest a return to $100.

"Following the USA decision to withdraw from the nuclear agreement with Iran, Saudi Arabia is committed to supporting the stability of oil markets for the benefit of producers and consumers and the sustainability of the global economic growth", the official said.

Tokyo finished 0.2 per cent higher and Sydney added 0.2 per cent. These are very, very strong sanctions; they worked last time.

Rainer Seele, chief executive of Austrian oil and gas company OMV, told German daily Handelsblatt that he expects prices to rise as the United States moves to reimpose sanctions.

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