International Monetary Fund releases quarterly update of global economic outlook
23 January, 2018, 01:35 | Author: Samuel Sharp
Pointing to growth in the United States and China, the International Monetary Fund forecast global growth to 3.9 percent for both 2018 and 2019, a 0.2 percentage point increase from its last update in October.
The fund said that changes to the USA tax code approved in December were responsible for roughly half of the boost to growth.
Global growth forecasts for 2018 and 2019 have been revised upward by 0.2 percentage point to 3.9 percent, the update said. The forecast also projected that federal tax revenues will fall more than spending, increasing deficits and acting as a fiscal stimulus that will boost US growth.
That acceleration will spill over to major trading partners, especially to the closest, Mexico and Canada.
The worldwide lending agency says 120 countries, representing three-quarters of world economic output, enjoyed economic growth in 2017, creating the broadest global expansion in seven years.
The International Monetary Fund raised its estimate for economic growth in Canada this year as it said USA tax cuts are expected to help boost global economic growth. Russian Federation is among primary sources of global GDP acceleration along with the United States, Canada, Brazil and Turkey, IMF Economic Counsellor Maurice Obstfeld said on Monday. Now those figures have been revised up to 2.7 percent in 2018 and 2.5 percent in 2019. However, that still represents a slower pace of growth from the estimated 1.8 percent expansion in 2017. Mexico's economy will be 0.4 points stronger this year and 0.7 points stronger in 2019.
China, which is 2017 growth champion with a growth rate of 6.8 percent, is expected to slow down to 6.6 percent in this year and 6.4 percent next year.
"Without prompt action to address structural growth impediments, enhance the inclusiveness of growth, and build policy buffers and resilience, the next downturn will come sooner and be harder to fight.Our view is that the current upturn, however welcome, is unlikely to become a "new normal" and faces medium-term downside hazards that likely will grow over time". On the upside, the cyclical rebound could prove stronger in the near term as the pickup in activity and easier financial conditions reinforce each other.
Key emerging market and developing economies, including Brazil, China and South Africa, also posted third-quarter growth stronger than the fall forecasts.
However, the rosier outlook came with a major caveat for financial markets, which the International Monetary Fund warned could be at the risk of a confidence-shaking correction. Multilateral cooperation remains vital for securing the global recovery. Among emerging market economies, headline and core inflation have ticked up slightly in recent months after declining earlier in 2017.
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