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Nigerian inflation slowed for 11th month in December

17 January, 2018, 02:05 | Author: Samuel Sharp
  • India's retail inflation in December shoots up to 5.21

The National Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday released the Consumer Price Index which measures inflation with the rate dropping from 15.9 per cent in November to 15.37 per cent in December.

"Inflation has been running at roughly the same rate since last spring following significant increases, partly due to the weaker pound after the European referendum", ONS senior statistician James Tucker said.

This is less than 17.26 percent reported in November 2017, while the corresponding rural inflation rate in December is 16.10 percent compared to 16.29 percent recorded in November 2017, the NBS said in its today's report.

CPI hit 3.1 per cent in November, prompting Bank of England governor Mark Carney to write to the Treasury, explaining the rise.

Despite the modest fall, inflation is still way beyond the Bank of England's mandated target of two per cent, noted Matthew Brittain, investment analyst at wealth manager Sanlam UK. Commentators also predicted inflation will fall back to the BoE's target over the course of the year.

For example, he points out the market 'is not pricing in a general election this year despite the weakness of the May government, and there is no guarantee that the recent more positive tone of the Brexit negotiations will continue.' If Brexit negotiations or May's government take a turn for the worse, sterling would weaken, which would drive up import inflation once again.


"Such a scenario could represent a real challenge to United Kingdom consumers, as with real GDP growth somewhat muted and no wage hike pressures, the bank could look through rising commodity prices as short-term, creating the risk of stagflation for savers and investors".

However, pressure in the pipeline grew as factory gate prices rose, confounding predictions of a fall.

Seaton also encouraged consumers to use platforms to keep an eye on spending, to help secure better mortgage and credit card rates.

Brettell said if you strip out the Brexit noise, the UK's underlying economic situation doesn't look materially different from the rest of the developed world. "I'd be somewhat surprised if rates were higher than 0.75% by the end of the year".

It remained too early to predict a rebalance between inflation and wage growth - the pace of annual wage growth at 2.5% still lags inflation - but pressures on household budgets were expected to see some relief in the coming months.

'As a result, food CPI inflation probably edged down to 4% in December, from 4.1% in November, shaving 0.01pp off the headline rate.

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